The European Leadership Network (ELNET), ELNET’s Forum of Strategic Dialogue (FSD), and the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA) brought together senior policymakers and experts from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Israel. The dialogue addressed the following topics: “Facing the Russian and Iranian threats;” “Disinformation and social media during wartime;” and “Crisis management, resilience and military preparedness.” The discussions were conducted strictly under the Chatham House Rule.
The dialogue was chaired by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, Chair, ELNET’s Forum of Strategic Dialogue; former Head of Israel’s Military Intelligence; former Director of the INSS. Participants included officials from the ministries of foreign affairs and defense, advisors, members of parliament, senior experts from think tanks, former army officials, academicians, and journalists from Israel and the CEE countries.
Executive Summary:
Facing the Russian and Iranian Threats
- Military cooperation between Russia and Iran, extending also to Iranian proxies, has advanced over the last decade and is likely to advance further and involve more anti-Western actors in the future, especially those cooperating to evade Western sanctions.
- For Israel and CEE countries these threats are existential, more so than for Western Europe and the US.
- Ukraine urgently needs more forces and equipment or its efforts to push back Russia’s occupation will not succeed.
- In Gaza, Israeli assessments are that Hamas as an organized army capable of carrying out another October 7 attack has ceased to exist, but it still retains some control and assets, which must be removed.
- The nature of Israel’s warfighting is more targeted and humanitarian than has been depicted.
- Nonetheless Israel is losing the cultural struggle for hearts and minds in the West, as seen especially in US university campuses and across the social media platforms.
- In Lebanon, Israel has scored impressive operational successes against the terrorist organization Hezbollah that can affect the outcome of the war. Israel has killed most of Hezbollah’s senior commanders, severely damaged Hezbollah’s command-and-control systems, and significantly reduced its advanced missile capabilities.
- Israel is also acting to restore deterrence against Iran, which is fighting Israel on seven fronts.
- Israel was said to supply Ukraine with more weapons than in the past. Russia’s support for Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas allows Israel to be more confrontational with Russia than before.
- Meanwhile, Israel suspects Iran is also advancing with its nuclear program, including weaponization.
Disinformation & Social Media During Wartime
- Hezbollah and Hamas have mastered the use of social media in line with their objectives.
- For many years, Israel has failed to invest in its soft power or public diplomacy.
- Russia has been successful in using social media as part of its hybrid warfare to create division in Western states.
- Europe needs a coordinated response to misinformation, taking account of the asymmetry of a struggle in which democratic states are more exposed than autocratic rivals.
- The public must be trained in media literacy and critical thinking, and education levels must be raised more broadly, to include early cybersecurity and disinformation awareness.
- There is also a need for better regulation of social media, including the enforcement of transparent and responsible behavior, particularly for platforms like the Chinese-owned TikTok.
Crisis Management, Resilience, and Military Preparadeness
- The challenge of strengthening resilience applies to Ukrainian and Israeli societies, as well as to Diaspora Jews.
- The overall state of Israeli resilience was a subject of debate, with some asserting that Israel is coping relatively well with a long war, while others highlight deep rifts in the society.
- Evidence-based policies are required to strengthen resilience, including ongoing monitoring of the public.
- Age is a significant factor for the resilience of individuals, with those of middle age, who are the backbone of the society, especially prone to anxiety.
- Civilians must be trained from an early age on how to become active contributors to state security, rather than passive “consumers”.
- Unity between different elements of society; trust between the public and government; and trust in the local community are vital.
- At the EU-level, the range of threat perception across states poses a challenge in the formation of collective strategies.
Conclusion and Recommendations
- Western states and Israel must cooperate to put pressure on the Russia-Iran axis through exposing their links, imposing stronger sanctions, and closer military cooperation.
- To effectively counter the battle for public opinion in the West, Israel must invest in communication and public diplomacy efforts, while aligning its tactical military actions with a well-defined diplomatic strategy.
- Israel needs to redress the loss of deterrence against adversaries led by Iran.
- There is a need for a Europe-wide response to the challenge of misinformation, including media literacy training especially for young people; legislation to enforce transparency and accountability on social media companies; and technological tools to expose bots and misinformation.
- States wishing to bolster their national resilience must gather data on the state of resilience regularly to assess fluctuations and act accordingly.
- Resilience building must be integrated into the education system.