Iran at a Historic Juncture – Dr. Meir Javedanfar

The biggest reason Israel undertook the recent operation to attack Iran was because, according to the Mossad, “Iran can achieve a nuclear weapon in 15 days.” This came after Netanyahu’s earlier warning that Iran could produce a weapon “within a few months, less than a year.”[1]

No Israeli leader could live with these timelines. Notably because Iran has enough enriched uranium to make nine nuclear bombs, if it decides to.[2] Consequently, Israel’s opposition parties backed the government’s decision to launch an extensive military operation against the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI).

Another major reason behind the decision to attack Iran was its extensive missile production capabilities. According to the IDF Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir, Iran currently has 2,500 ground-to-ground missiles. Owing to its expanding production capacity, in two years, this number will reach 8,000.[3] These missiles were fired in great numbers at Israeli cities during the recent war, and the two attacks that Iran undertook in April and October 2024. Additionally, such missiles have been supplied for free to Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Consequently, destroying Iran’s missile production capacity became a vital necessity for Israel’s security.

The IRI’s support for anti-Israel proxy groups in the region is another reason behind Israel’s decision to attack Iran on June 13.

Since 1991, the IRI has spent tens of billions of dollars supporting terror groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and Hezbollah. They have killed and maimed thousands of Israelis and Jews at home and abroad. These operations have included hundreds of terror attacks and suicide bombing operations, the biggest of which was the October 7 massacre. After this tragic event, the State of Israel decided that it could no longer tolerate the threats posed by Iran’s proxies. Israel launched various operations to weaken them. Consequently, today Hamas and PIJ in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been severely weakened. By exacting a heavy cost through its June 13 operation, Israel wants to deter the IRI from supporting such groups again. 

The regime is very worried about threats of regime change. Such concerns have increased significantly because of attacks by the Israeli Air Force against the symbols of the regime. The attacks by Israel and the U.S. are likely to embolden criticism of the regime’s policies, which have brought an unprecedented air campaign upon the people of Iran. 

The threat of regime change is unlikely to be realized as long as the war continues. This is because Iranians are too busy trying to survive hardships brought about by the war. Life in Iran was difficult and miserable before the war against Israel. Inflation was high, with food inflation reaching as much as 50% and housing inflation reaching 84%. Now they are rising to even higher levels.

Iranians, especially millions from Tehran, have had to flee the city because of the war. They have sought refuge all over the country. This has imposed a very tough financial cost, as property owners receiving these refugees have seriously jacked up the prices in order to line their pockets. In some places, normal rental prices of property outside of Tehran have increased by 500%.

History has shown that people do not have revolutions while they are in the middle of a war. The people of Russia undertook the constitutional revolution of 1905 after the end of the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese war. The Russians again waited for WWI to end before launching the February 1917 revolution against the Tsar. Therefore, we have to wait‌ for the war to end before we can see if regime change is on the horizon or not.

Additionally, the people of Iran have tremendous fear of the regime’s repressive security forces. They have little qualms about the arbitrary arrest, torture, and killing of Iranians, young and old. For example, within two weeks after the start of the November 2019 uprising over petrol prices, the regime killed at least 1,000 members of the public.[4] During the Mahsa Amini uprising of 2002, the regime killed 537 protesters, while arresting more than 19,400.[5]

On June 24, the IRI and Israel accepted a ceasefire agreement brokered by President Trump and Qatar. First, we have to see if this ceasefire holds, because it was broken by the Iranian side soon after its initial declaration.[6] If the ceasefire holds, then we will have to wait and see if the IRI is ready for negotiations for a new nuclear agreement. This is unlikely in the short term, as the IRI leadership fears that such a scenario could portray it as weak and vulnerable. 

For now, the Iranian regime will focus on trying to recover some of its losses on the battlefield caused by Israel.

The dangers have been extensive. Iran’s anti-aircraft system has been decimated, thus allowing Israel to have mastery over Iran’s skies. Israel used this opportunity to attack nuclear and military installations of the regime.

Moving forward, the regime is also likely to undertake terrorist operations abroad against Jewish and Israeli targets. Europe could be an important area of operation for the Iranian regime because of the relationship with European criminal gangs, who cooperate with it. [7] These gangs have undertaken terror operations on behalf of the IRI in several places, such as Sweden and Germany. They could be activated for more operations across the EU. Everyone should be on their guard.